Europe’s electricity grid is getting much cleaner – fast.
Power sector emissions were down a whopping 19% in 2023 compared to 2022, according to a recent report by Ember, an independent energy think tank.
“The EU’s power sector is in the middle of a monumental shift,” says Sarah Brown, Ember’s Europe program director. She explains that fossil fuels are playing a smaller role than ever as a system with wind and solar as its backbone comes into view.
Coal dropped 26% in 2023, continuing its long-term decline, and another 20% of coal plants in the EU are expected to close this year and next. And perhaps surprisingly to forecasters, gas did not replace coal in the grid. Gas generation also saw a significant decline of 15%, the fourth consecutive year of decline. That led wind power, which grew by 13%, to overtake gas generation as the second-largest source of electricity in the EU. Combined, solar and wind generated 27% of Europe’s electricity in 2023, up from 23% in 2022.
And despite rumours to the contrary, “The energy crisis and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did not lead to coal and gas resurgence – far from it,” Brown says.
There were other factors involved in muscling out coal and gas from the grid. Both hydro and nuclear generation bounced back to varying degrees after a difficult 2022. Hydropower generators had a terrible 2022 because of drought conditions, though the sector rebounded in 2023 (up 15%) to about average production levels for the last 20 years.
Nuclear also had an awful year in 2022 as a series of mechanical failures transformed France into Europe’s largest electricity importer rather than its traditional role as Europe’s largest exporter of electricity. But 2023 saw more consistent operations, and generation inched up by 1.5%. Even at these lower levels, nuclear remains the single largest source of electricity in Europe, providing 22.9% of total generation (for comparison, nuclear energy makes up about 15% of Canada’s electricity).
Conservation was also a significant piece of the puzzle. Total electricity use fell in the EU by 3.4% compared to the previous year. That trend is not expected to continue as Europeans increasingly shift to electric vehicles and heat pumps, driving up electricity demand overall.
For renewables to expand market share at the expense of fossil fuels and reduce power emissions, they will need to grow faster than new demand is added. The current plan is to double wind and solar’s share of a much larger pie by 2030 – hitting 55% of electrical generation.
Solar’s future in Europe seems very bright as cost reductions and high electricity prices have made it extremely attractive for homeowners. Solar grew by 17% in 2023 and 29% during the energy crisis of 2022. Additional measures are being put in place to maintain that growth. New building regulations for the 27-country bloc will ensure that all new buildings and existing public buildings have solar panels installed on them by the end of the decade, while most non-domestic buildings, such as warehouses, stores and factories, undergoing a renovation that requires a permit will also have to install solar panels.
To speed things up even further, the EU is also creating “renewable acceleration areas” where permitting for renewables can be fast-tracked. This is especially helpful for the wind industry, which has faced considerable struggles with years-long permitting processes. Investments in offshore wind energy topped €30 billion in 2023 after a disastrous 2022 saw investment bottom out at just €400 million.
“As wind and solar grow, gas will be next to enter terminal decline,” Brown says.
