Renewable power is being deployed at a breakneck pace globally, with wind and solar set to lead record-breaking growth around the world this year, according to the latest report from the International Energy Agency. But you wouldn’t know it listening to recent claims from senior Canadian government leaders, past and present, that renewable power is unreliable or will spike power costs: as they like to argue, the wind doesn’t always blow and the sun doesn’t always shine.
While it’s true that solar and wind generation are variable, credible analysis shows they are the most cost-effective sources of new power, even accounting for this intermittency. A report published by the Canadian Climate Institute last spring also estimates these renewables will play a large role in any future electricity system in Canada – ranging from 31 to 75% of generation by 2050, compared to only 6% today. In fact, they’ll likely play this role independently of climate policies. They are simply that cheap.
There are lots of ways to balance variable renewables. But they don’t necessarily fit into the categories that come to mind when we think about power. Rather, they belong in a new category of things that provide “flexibility.”
Flexibility refers to the ability to manage variability in supply and demand in a cost-effective manner over time. Historically, coal and gas plants have played this role, but any type of generation that can be turned on quickly can provide flexibility. Non-emitting hydropower is a great source of flexibility – and it’s abundant in many regions. Other emerging technologies, like geothermal and hydrogen, may play a larger role in time.
Technological innovation has also given us entirely new types of flexibility. Battery storage is now cost-effective and getting deployed at scale across Canada. In partnership with Six Nations of the Grand River, Ontario is about to build Canada’s largest battery farm, and when it comes online in 2025, it will double the energy storage in this province’s grid. While batteries tend to offer only short-duration power storage for now, new solutions like compressed air or longer-duration battery storage may extend this significantly.
Demand-side management is also becoming more important. This is where some types of electricity load are shifted to move demand to when there’s plenty of supply to match it through pricing signals or direct remote control. Some types of industrial load are already moved around this way – for example, production in pulp and paper mills – and we will increasingly see households participate in it too. Think EV charging that costs less if you’re willing to let your utility decide when exactly your car charges overnight. Or paying you to slightly adjust your house’s temperature for short periods when electricity demand is high.
The fourth category of flexibility is a very old technology we’re simply not using enough: interconnection. While most Canadian provinces are quite well connected with their southern neighbours, east–west transmission capacity is much smaller. Every Canadian province that could decarbonize with wind and solar has a neighbour with abundant hydro. The potential for a mutually beneficial relationship is there; we just need to tap it.
Building more flexible electricity systems doesn’t only help balance intermittent renewables; it makes sense for its own sake. Flexible systems are better able to withstand shocks like extreme weather, which we’ll see more of in a changing climate. How we balance cheap renewables and build resilient systems using various types of flexibility is the electricity sector’s 21st-century challenge. New technology options mean that we’re no longer in a world that’s all about base load versus peaking.
Planning and investment need to catch up to this new reality, since power-purchase agreements and electricity-market design across Canada’s provinces and territories don’t yet reflect it. Even now, when provincial utilities and system operators consider their options, they don’t necessarily take a close look at all the different types of flexibility. Pilot projects in Germany and elsewhere have shown that a grid that relies on renewables is technically feasible. The hardest work lies on the planning, policy, and governance side of things. Canadian clean power will be a competitive advantage if we can maintain it. So let’s roll our sleeves up and get serious about building a modern 21st-century electricity system.
Jason Dion is senior research director at the Canadian Climate Institute. Sara Hastings-Simon is an assistant professor in the Department of Geoscience and the School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary.
