Offshore wind is gaining momentum in Atlantic Canada

The East Coast of Canada is a windy place. Nova Scotia has some of the country’s highest average wind speeds, due to strong coastal winds, and in parts of Newfoundland winds regularly reach levels akin to that of a Category 3 hurricane, sending gusts of salt spray far inland and occasionally toppling transport trucks like tumbleweeds.

Winds are even higher and more consistent offshore, where average wind speeds are some of the highest and most consistent in the world. Recognizing the potential for power generation, the Atlantic provinces are now making ambitious plans for offshore wind development. Nova Scotia aims to offer leases for five gigawatts of offshore wind energy by 2030, and Newfoundland and Labrador recently announced legislation to develop the offshore wind sector.

In June, Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston went even further, proposing a megaproject, dubbed “Wind West,” to develop 40 gigawatts worth of offshore wind-generated electricity — enough to provide 27% of Canada’s power.

The path to making those plans real is anything but straightforward, however. Getting offshore turbines deployed will require significant upgrades to transmission infrastructure, as well as ongoing work to ensure the buy-in of groups like the fishing industry, which has been leery of offshore wind. But provincial leaders in Atlantic Canada say this is their opportunity to lose – and that they intend to seize the moment that’s blown in.

A strong case for offshore wind development

The case for offshore wind development in the Maritimes stands on one main pillar: the region’s uniquely strong winds. As in, off-the-charts powerful. At up to 11 metres per second, average annual wind speeds exceed the highest category in the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s offshore wind classification scheme, says Nathaniel Pearre, researcher in the renewable-energy storage lab at Dalhousie University. These significant wind resources create an economic advantage, Pearre says, translating to more energy from the turbines and more return on investment.

Another key plank in the case for offshore wind in Atlantic Canada is the broad continental shelf on which to build, with water depths in many places that are just 25 to 40 metres, which is well within the range for fixed-bottom turbines. This accommodating undersea geography creates an easier pathway for wind projects than in British Columbia, for example, where the ocean floor drops off close to shore. Floating turbines are an emerging alternative but for now are significantly more expensive to build.

Taken all together, the region’s advantageous conditions – its geography, amount of real estate and abundant wind resource – create “the potential to have relatively low levelized cost of energy [from] offshore wind, and a lot of it,” Pearre says.

The opportunities and challenges for exporting wind energy

For Nova Scotia, where demand for electricity is higher in the winter, and where nearly half of electricity still comes from coal, offshore wind has the potential to be particularly useful, since winds are also higher in the winter months. But even five gigawatts of wind, as Nova Scotia intends to start offering leases for, is roughly twice what the province needs to supply its own population.

That leaves export, says Elisa Obermann, executive director of Marine Renewables Canada: “It’s definitely feasible to develop and construct those [offshore wind] projects; the main question that we have is just around what/where is the market for the offshore wind electricity.”

Proximity to New England – where states facing cancelled offshore wind projects may soon be scrambling to fill a 30 gigawatt hole in their supply of green energy – offers potential customers, as do other Canadian provinces.

The challenge with export is that Nova Scotia is nearly an island, and not just geographically. The transmission cable linking the province to New Brunswick is just 300 megawatts, so even one offshore wind farm would likely overwhelm its capacity. Subsea cables could allow the province to export to New England, though such cables are expensive. For Nova Scotia to provide Canada with significant offshore wind energy, it would need to upgrade its transmission link to the rest of the country.

Scott Urquhart, co-founder and CEO of Aegir Insights, an international consulting firm based in Denmark, points out that exporting power requires agreements from other provinces, as well as U.S. states, which can take years to acquire. And while the export case may be strengthened by the pause on offshore wind projects in the northeastern United States, which could face a power crisis by the 2030s, the sector would ultimately be better served by a robust industry on both sides of the border, Urquhart says.

Still, there’s reason for hope, not least that Bill C-5, the Building Canada Act, could allow governments to fast-track necessary transmission upgrades, a priority identified by the Atlantic premiers at a first ministers’ meeting in June. The premiers have pitched an Eastern Energy Partnership to export wind and hydro power to Western Canada and New England, which would come with an $8-billion price tag for transmission improvements.

A swinging pendulum for wind energy

The last several years have not been kind to the wind-power sector. Inflation, supply chain issues and shifting political winds have prompted companies to cancel projects, including plans for a 2.5 gigawatt wind farm off the U.K. coast by Danish giant Ørsted.

But like all resource industries, offshore wind swings from crisis to growth, according to Urquhart, and there’s reason to think now is a good time to start new projects. The International Energy Agency has forecasted that wind-power capacity will double between 2024 and 2030 compared to the previous six years, with offshore wind driving the growth. “It’s hopefully at the start of another pendulum swing,” Urquhart says.

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Even if seabed leases start being issued for offshore wind this year, Urquhart says it would be at least a decade before farms are operational, “and that’s 10 years if you don’t have major stakeholder conflicts and constraints.”

The risk of conflict is not negligible. There are widespread fears that turbines could displace activity in other sectors, such as shipping and fishing.

But Nathaniel Pearre says the regional assessment on offshore wind, which recommended against turbines within 25 kilometres of land and in almost all fishing areas, was excessively deferential to those fears. The proposed regulation would reduce the available space for ground-mounted turbines and increase the cost. “The further you transmit [energy], the more the price goes up.”

Either way, Canada’s offshore wind has potential but still a long way to go – and the conversation is just getting started.

Moira Donovan is an independent journalist based in Nova Scotia, specializing in the environment and climate change. Her written work has been published in Hakai Magazine, The Narwhal and The Economist, and her radio work has been broadcast on CBC Radio.