That was one of the central conclusions of Corporate Knights’ latest Earth Index* analysis, which found that G20 countries as a whole were not on track to meet their stated reduction targets from 2020 to 2021. The Earth Index revealed that the G20 actually saw emissions rise during this period by 23% of the reduction needed to meet their stated climate goals – a glaring “say–do” gap between their targets and actions.

If G20 countries meet their pledges, their collective emissions will shrink to 25.3 gigatonnes in 2030 (down from 38.1 gigatonnes in 2019), but these new findings do not instill confidence. Globally, emissions will need to decrease by 4% every year if the planet is going to reach net-zero by 2050. But early indications from the International Energy Agency are that emissions were up again in 2022. 

“If the G20 fully delivers on its commitments, the world would have a two-thirds chance of keeping the global annual temperature increase within a two-degree threshold,” says Corporate Knights CEO Toby Heaps. “Those aren’t odds any of us should feel great about, and this year’s Earth Index suggests we’re squandering the opportunity to reduce risk down to even that margin.”

While the G20 collectively lagged behind on its promises, the Earth Index found that high-income countries performed better, reducing their emissions by 44% of the level needed to reach their climate pledges. This was largely thanks to the pandemic-induced reduction in emissions from transportation and fossil fuel production.  Canada scored comparatively well with an Earth Index score of 93%, but still fell short of the pace it needs to set to meet its 2030 target.  

Read the full report.

Middle-income countries, however, saw emissions rise by 80% of the amount by which they would have needed to decline to be on track for meeting commitments. China scored the worst of these economies, with emissions increasing by 117% of the amount they would have needed to decrease to be on track for meeting the country’s stated net-zero commitment.  Mexico had the best score,  having reduced emissions by 184% of the reduction needed (although this is largely due to Mexico’s weak target of 22% below 2013 levels by 2030).  

The data show that while there was a dip in emissions during the early months of the pandemic, it was only temporary, as they rose again from 2020 to 2021. Corporate Knights head of research Ralph Torrie says that global leaders squandered the opportunity to chart a new course after the shutdowns of the early pandemic.  

“We continue to see half-measures and new commitments to pipelines and other fossil fuel infrastructure,” he says. “Time is running out to mount a true emergency response to climate change that would close the gap between what we know and say needs to be done and the effort we have so far been able to muster.” 

*The Earth Index measures G20 countries’ progress on emission reductions against their stated climate goals. Click here for a full explanation of its methodology. Click here for the full report. 

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