This rule-of-thumb breaks down for electric vehicles (EVs), partly because it takes extra energy to manufacture their batteries but mainly because electricity can vary from ultra-clean to uber-dirty.

To help readers determine how much cleaner plug-in cars would be over their petroleum counterparts based on where they live, Corporate Knights has compiled the grid emissions intensity for every Canadian province and American state (and the District of Columbia). We then compared the per-mile emissions for the Nissan Leaf – the world’s best-selling EV – and its combustion cousin, the Nissan Versa, based on government fuel-efficiency figures.

Click on the image to enlarge:

Highlights

For the United States as a whole, and taking into account that coal powers one-third of the U.S. grid, the Nissan Leaf delivered a 40 per cent emissions savings over the Versa, per mile. For Canada, where the grid is two-thirds clean hydroelectricity, the savings double to 80 per cent.

Moreover, almost 80 per cent of Americans live in states where the Nissan Leaf offers better than 25 per cent per-mile emissions savings – a difference big enough to give us solid confidence that the plug-in is less polluting than its petroleum partner. And that’s before considering the bamboo-like growth rates that renewable energy is experiencing worldwide.

The aforementioned states include California, Washington, New York and Georgia, home to the five cities responsible for more than half the United States’ plug-in EVs thus far: San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle, New York City and Atlanta. Indeed, Nissan recently announced that Atlanta had become the Leaf’s top-selling city. So it seems that EVs are generally being purchased where they’re most effective.

In contrast, only 5 per cent of Americans live in states or districts where the Leaf’s transportation emissions prove worse than the Versa’s. This represents residents of West Virginia, Indiana, Kentucky, North Dakota, Wyoming or the District of Columbia.

While state-by-state EV sales figures are hard to come by, the District of Columbia does hold the distinction of being the first state/federal district hosting more public battery-charging stations than gas stations. At time of writing, the margin was 121 to 85 for the plugs versus petroleum.

Continuing with the 80-20 theme, 80 per cent of Canadians live in provinces or territories where the Leaf’s per-kilometre emissions reductions amount to 60 per cent or more. And fully 40 per cent of the country live in five renewables-dominated provinces where per-km emissions are reduced more than 98 per cent: Quebec, British Columbia, Manitoba, Newfoundland & Labrador, and Prince Edward Island (though because these figures don’t include electricity imports, the numbers are deceiving for P.E.I., which imports a lot of coal power). These two-fifths of Canadians are responsible for three-fifths of the country’s EV purchases.

Meanwhile, the 11 per cent of Canadians who reside in Alberta would be creating more emissions if they charged EVs by plugging into the province’s coal-dominated grid. This explains why only 3 per cent of Canada’s plug-ins are sold there.

Curiously, Canadian consumers are adopting plug-in vehicles much more slowly than their American counterparts, with electrics representing about 0.1 per cent of the Canadian new car market in 2013, versus about 0.6 per cent in America. While Canada lacks federal incentives, the three largest provinces offer provincial rebates.

One possible explanation is that Canadians tend to buy less expensive vehicles than Americans, while manufacturers tend to price plug-in vehicles higher in Canada than in the United States.

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Don Romano, Hyundai Canada’s president and chief executive, acknowledged at the launch event the persistent chicken-and-egg problem that has bedevilled fuel-cell vehicles and the refuelling infrastructure they require. But having proven the technology through three million kilometres of testing in a range of climates, Hyundai is now willing to plant the seed for a new segment in the auto industry, he said.

A Hyundai representative elaborated that the company thought it had chosen well with its introductory fuel cell offering since SUVs and crossovers, such as the Tucson, recently surpassed sedans as the top-selling vehicle category in the United States. Hyundai was also able to engineer its fuel cell system to seamlessly fit into the Tucson, despite the loss of a few vertical centimetres of trunk space in the back.

Hyundai carefully emphasized at the event that it continues to support electric vehicles – its Kia division, for example, began selling the Soul EV in Canada in October. Its optimism around fuel cells, however, is based on the fact that not every customer will be satisfied with the range and charging limitations of battery-electric vehicles.

And while recharging times are generally a non-issue for EV owners who recharge their cars overnight, apartment dwellers who are unable to access an electrical outlet in their building’s common garage may find fuel-cell cars appealing. About one in eight Canadian households live in condominiums or apartments, and many homeowners lack garages or driveways in which to park their vehicles overnight for convenient charging. For drivers who can charge at home, electric vehicles can be an excellent option.

Fuel cells are most easily described as batteries that store their fuel externally. The Tucson’s fuel cell generates electricity (and water) when the hydrogen fuel reacts with the oxygen in air. The vehicle can be refuelled in about five minutes and has an estimated range of 426 km, thanks to hydrogen tanks that store fuel at 700 atmospheres (i.e., 10,000 pounds per square inch). And while there’s only one hydrogen station in Metro Vancouver that can that fill to this pressure – it’s in the suburb of Surrey – more are expected soon.

The B.C. government’s Renewable and Low Carbon Fuel Requirements Act mandates that fuel vendors gradually reduce the carbon intensity of the fuels they sell, said Eric Denhoff of the Canadian Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Association (CHFCA). Alternatively, they can obtain credits to achieve the same effect by funding alternative-fuels infrastructure, such as electric-car chargers or hydrogen fuel stations.

The CHFCA hopes this policy will result in 10 to 12 hydrogen filling stations in Metro Vancouver by the end of 2017.

As for the vehicle itself, a test drive demonstrated the Tucson was a smooth ride worthy of its price point. Its electric motor – fuel cell vehicles are a “flavour” of electric vehicle, and so are powered by electric motors – offered ample torque, making for effortless acceleration and handling. The cabin was as luxurious as one might expect for the lease terms – and very quiet.

Hyundai held its event near Vancouver’s posh Granville Island Market at the Arthur Erickson-designed Waterfall Building, so-named for the curtain of water that descends gracefully into a reflective pool in the courtyard. Perhaps the company wanted to play on the fact that water is a fuel cell vehicle’s only exhaust product.

Those in the Vancouver fuel-cell community would have recognized a deeper symbolism. The event was held in the Waterfall Building’s gallery, which was known for several years as the Ballard Lederer Gallery, after curators Jan Ballard and Ted Lederer. Jan Ballard is the daughter-in-law of the late Geoffrey Ballard, founder of Vancouver-area automotive fuel cell pioneer Ballard Power Systems.

Ballard Power Systems pivoted away from automotive fuel cell development several years ago, spinning part of the company off as AFCC, an engineering firm co-owned by Daimler and Ford. Though Ballard signed an engineering services contract with Volkswagen last year, it currently focuses on fuel cells for warehouse forklifts and backup power for cellphone towers.

Disclosure: The author works for Daimler- and Ford-owned fuel cell developer AFCC, and disclosed this to Hyundai Canada upon receiving an invitation to the event. They graciously set competitive considerations aside, and reaffirmed the offer to attend.

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Demonstrating the impact of public policy, in Canada – where government purchase incentives of up to $8,500 per vehicle are only offered in Ontario and Quebec – EVs represent about one-quarter of one per cent of new car sales. The country’s 10,000th EV is expected to drive off the lot around the end of the year.

In the United States, where buyers receive up to $7,500 (U.S.) in federal tax incentives, sometimes supplemented by state-level support, plug-ins represent about three-quarters of one per cent of new car sales, and 10,000 plug-ins are typically sold each month.

This contrasts dramatically with Norway, where electric cars are exempt from luxury and value-added taxes that can double the price of combustion vehicle purchases. Plug-ins represented about 16 per cent of new cars purchased in the first half of 2014. With 30,000-plus EVs now on Norwegian roads, more than one per cent of the country’s cars are now powered by its plentiful hydroelectric energy.

Electric vehicles generally come in two flavours: plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, or PHEVs, and battery-electric vehicles, or BEVs. PHEVs supplement their batteries with a gasoline propulsion system, which activates when the batteries are depleted. As a result, they match the range and refuelling times of conventional gasoline-fuelled vehicles. The Chevy Volt is probably the best-known PHEV, though Ford and Toyota both offer plug-in hybrids in their lineups.

BEVs, on the other hand, rely exclusively on their batteries so generally have shorter ranges than their conventional counterparts. The Nissan Leaf and Smart ForTwo Electric Drive both boast about 130 km of range – plenty for most drivers’ everyday needs – while the luxury Tesla Model S offers 370 to 480 km, depending on the options chosen.

Though BEVs far exceed average daily driving needs, many car buyers remain worried about their range and recharging time, and so reject them when deciding on their next purchase. Realizing this, automakers have accelerated their efforts to improve these two limitations.

One of the ways automakers have improved plug-in vehicle fuel efficiency in recent years is by substituting lighter components for heavier ones, a process known as “light-weighting.” This trend particularly benefits electric vehicles.

For example, the BMW i3’s body panels are made of carbon-fibre-reinforced plastic and the slim seats weigh half as much as their predecessors. Measures such as these, and a selection of driving modes, allow the i3 to be driven up to 200 km between charges – one and a half times the range of the Nissan Leaf – using a smaller battery.

Though most electric cars are charged overnight in their owners’ garages, drivers sometimes need a top-up during the day. At one of the 1,000-plus Level 2 charging stations across Canada, a Nissan Leaf driver could gain 20 km of range per half-hour of charging time. A small number of direct-current Fast Charging (Level 3) stations will give them about 100 km in a half-hour.

Meanwhile, the Tesla Supercharger network – with more than 100 stations enabling coast-to-coast travel – will return almost 200 km of range in about 20 minutes.

With Tesla having recently declared its intent to open its patents to other automakers, other vehicle brands may soon be able to take advantage of the supercharger network. On this point, Nissan and BMW are rumoured to be in talks with the California carmaker.

 The most anticipated upcoming electric vehicle, meanwhile, is the Tesla Model III, which is expected to debut in 2017. With a range of more than 300 km and a $35,000 target price, it’s intended for the entry-level luxury vehicle market currently targeted by the BMW 3-series.

To help it achieve this price point, Tesla is building a “gigafactory” in Nevada in partnership with battery supplier Panasonic. The goal is to produce as many lithium-ion batteries under one roof as are currently produced around the world. Through economies of scale, the company hopes its factory will push battery costs down a further 30 per cent from today’s levels in its first year of mass production.

Whether the company achieves its characteristically audacious goal, or hits speed bumps along the way, the collective dedication of other automakers – such as Nissan, GM and BMW – should ensure the electric vehicle market continues to accelerate. 

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